
The Census figures represented good news for the Protestant
and Unionist population of Northern Ireland.
There can be no doubting that at all, and the rather sheepish
expressions on the face of some Sinn Fein and SDLP politicians,
as well as several media personalities confirmed the fact.
Expectations among nationalists had been sky-high before
the release of the 2001 Census figures for Northern Ireland
just before Christmas. Indeed, in the days before their release,
the airwaves were filled with predictions that the Protestant
population had fallen below 50 per cent for the first time
in history, and there were even some predicting that Roman
Catholics had passed the Protestant total.
The figures showed the Protestant proportion of the Provinces
population as over 53 per cent, and that of the Roman Catholic
minority as under 44 per cent.
The figures confirmed what thinking people have been aware
of for years the Roman Catholic birth rate in Northern
Ireland is falling and falling fast. It is still higher
than the Protestant birth rate, but not a great lot, and there
is little doubt that within a number of years it will be the
same. Thats inevitable as it has been the case in Spain,
Italy, France, and the Republic of Ireland.
There is no reason to believe that Roman Catholics in Northern
Ireland are likely to adopt a different attitude to their
co-religionists in the rest of Europe. Indeed, the number
of births in Northern Ireland are around 50-50 per cent, and
it is being forecast that the Roman Catholic percentage of
births will fall below the Protestant and Others.
Too much has been made for years about the birth rate issue,
and if one was to regard that as the only criteria for an
eventual Roman Catholic majority in Northern Ireland, then
it would be a case of it never happening. It is highly unlikely
that there will ever be a Roman Catholic majority in Northern
Ireland due to a larger birth rate, and the sooner that is
accepted by all the better it will be for reality to sink
in.
Nationalists have talked in triumphalist language for years
about the booming Roman Catholic births in Belfast and other
parts of Northern Ireland and there is no doubt they were
regarding this as being of the utmost significance. There
was silence from republican pundits in the days following
the release of the Census figures and that says a lot. However,
Unionists and Protestants should not be triumphalist. It is
very satisfactory to find it confirmed that the birth rate
issue is increasingly irrelevant and hardly surprising that
there should be delight in many quarters.
But Unionists and Protestants have to face up to the fact
that the percentage of Roman Catholics in Northern Ireland
has increased from 34 per cent in 1961 to 44 per cent in 2001
an increase of 10 per cent. That means the Roman Catholics
constitute a strong and vigorous minority and the task for
Unionists is to seek the support of the one-third of the Roman
Catholic population believed to be either supportive of the
UK link or apathetic about a united Ireland.
Unionists also have to remember that while the birth rate
issue is no longer as relevant as it once was, there are other
factors which have combined to narrow the gap between the
two communities in Northern Ireland. It is generally accepted
that the vast majority of the young people who leave Northern
Ireland to go to universities in Britain are Protestant and
this has been a prime factor in the decline of the majority
population.
It is a brain drain and also a key factor in
the population stakes, so the Unionist population must study
means of persuading more Protestant students to stay in Northern
Ireland in preference to England and Scotland.
There is a wider issue in this, of course, and it involves
the Government as well as the minority population. Queens
University and to a lesser extent the University of Ulster
have been regarded for years as a cold house for
Protestants. The domination of student organisations at Queens
by nationalists, the end of the National Anthem at graduation
ceremonies, and the introduction of Irish signs has not encouraged
some Protestants to attend Queens.
Everything possible must be done to produce a more friendly
atmosphere at Queens University for young Protestant
students, and the Government has a part to play in this, as
well as the need for nationalists to be more tolerant of the
Protestant and unionist students.
There is also a need for the Government to do more in providing
jobs and investment in the predominately Protestant east of
the province. The loss of so many jobs at the shipyard, and
the closure of plants and large pay-offs in Carrickfergus,
Ballyclare, Newtownabbey, and East Belfast has hit the unionist
community.
A lot of the concentration on jobs in recent years has been
in nationalist areas like Newry and Londonderry. Thats
fair enough, as these and other places suffered from high
unemployment for years. Government investment has been vast
in the west of the province, but now it is time for more resources
and jobs to be provided in the east.
And there is a clear onus on those republicans and nationalists
who have been less than kind or tolerant towards Protestants
in the past 35 years.
There needs to be respect for the Protestant, Unionist and
Orange tradition on the part of militant republicanism. It
was this militant republicanism which led to ethnic cleansing
of the Unionist population on the west bank of Londonderry,
in parts of South Armagh, along the Fermanagh border, and
in north and west Belfast.
Thousands of the Protestants who fled the city side of Londonderry,
parts of Belfast, and the border areas, moved to Scotland,
England, and overseas to find a more peaceful and acceptable
society.
That cannot be denied as most readers of the Orange
Standard will have knowledge of individual Protestants
who have left Northern Ireland since 1968. Their forced eviction
has been a key factor in the reduction in the Protestant population.
The 2001 Census figures must be a spur to both communities
in Northern Ireland to work a lot harder to bring about community
harmony, respect for one anothers traditions and heritage.
Protestants, Unionists and Orangemen must work harder to create
a peaceful, democratic and prosperous society in Northern
Ireland. But it also needs a similar response from the minority
community if that ideal is to become a reality.

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