Unionists Still A Clear Majority

The Census figures represented good news for the Protestant and Unionist population of Northern Ireland.

There can be no doubting that at all, and the rather sheepish expressions on the face of some Sinn Fein and SDLP politicians, as well as several media personalities confirmed the fact.

Expectations among nationalists had been sky-high before the release of the 2001 Census figures for Northern Ireland just before Christmas. Indeed, in the days before their release, the airwaves were filled with predictions that the Protestant population had fallen below 50 per cent for the first time in history, and there were even some predicting that Roman Catholics had passed the Protestant total.

The figures showed the Protestant proportion of the Province’s population as over 53 per cent, and that of the Roman Catholic minority as under 44 per cent.

The figures confirmed what thinking people have been aware of for years – the Roman Catholic birth rate in Northern Ireland is falling – and falling fast. It is still higher than the Protestant birth rate, but not a great lot, and there is little doubt that within a number of years it will be the same. That’s inevitable as it has been the case in Spain, Italy, France, and the Republic of Ireland.

There is no reason to believe that Roman Catholics in Northern Ireland are likely to adopt a different attitude to their co-religionists in the rest of Europe. Indeed, the number of births in Northern Ireland are around 50-50 per cent, and it is being forecast that the Roman Catholic percentage of births will fall below the Protestant and ‘Others’.

Too much has been made for years about the birth rate issue, and if one was to regard that as the only criteria for an eventual Roman Catholic majority in Northern Ireland, then it would be a case of it never happening. It is highly unlikely that there will ever be a Roman Catholic majority in Northern Ireland due to a larger birth rate, and the sooner that is accepted by all the better it will be for reality to sink in.

Nationalists have talked in triumphalist language for years about the booming Roman Catholic births in Belfast and other parts of Northern Ireland and there is no doubt they were regarding this as being of the utmost significance. There was silence from republican pundits in the days following the release of the Census figures and that says a lot. However, Unionists and Protestants should not be triumphalist. It is very satisfactory to find it confirmed that the birth rate issue is increasingly irrelevant and hardly surprising that there should be delight in many quarters.

But Unionists and Protestants have to face up to the fact that the percentage of Roman Catholics in Northern Ireland has increased from 34 per cent in 1961 to 44 per cent in 2001 – an increase of 10 per cent. That means the Roman Catholics constitute a strong and vigorous minority and the task for Unionists is to seek the support of the one-third of the Roman Catholic population believed to be either supportive of the UK link or apathetic about a united Ireland.

Unionists also have to remember that while the birth rate issue is no longer as relevant as it once was, there are other factors which have combined to narrow the gap between the two communities in Northern Ireland. It is generally accepted that the vast majority of the young people who leave Northern Ireland to go to universities in Britain are Protestant and this has been a prime factor in the decline of the majority population.

It is a ‘brain drain’ and also a key factor in the population stakes, so the Unionist population must study means of persuading more Protestant students to stay in Northern Ireland in preference to England and Scotland.

There is a wider issue in this, of course, and it involves the Government as well as the minority population. Queen’s University and to a lesser extent the University of Ulster have been regarded for years as a ‘cold house’ for Protestants. The domination of student organisations at Queen’s by nationalists, the end of the National Anthem at graduation ceremonies, and the introduction of Irish signs has not encouraged some Protestants to attend Queen’s.

Everything possible must be done to produce a more friendly atmosphere at Queen’s University for young Protestant students, and the Government has a part to play in this, as well as the need for nationalists to be more tolerant of the Protestant and unionist students.

There is also a need for the Government to do more in providing jobs and investment in the predominately Protestant east of the province. The loss of so many jobs at the shipyard, and the closure of plants and large pay-offs in Carrickfergus, Ballyclare, Newtownabbey, and East Belfast has hit the unionist community.

A lot of the concentration on jobs in recent years has been in nationalist areas like Newry and Londonderry. That’s fair enough, as these and other places suffered from high unemployment for years. Government investment has been vast in the west of the province, but now it is time for more resources and jobs to be provided in the east.

And there is a clear onus on those republicans and nationalists who have been less than kind or tolerant towards Protestants in the past 35 years.

There needs to be respect for the Protestant, Unionist and Orange tradition on the part of militant republicanism. It was this militant republicanism which led to ethnic ‘cleansing’ of the Unionist population on the west bank of Londonderry, in parts of South Armagh, along the Fermanagh border, and in north and west Belfast.

Thousands of the Protestants who fled the city side of Londonderry, parts of Belfast, and the border areas, moved to Scotland, England, and overseas to find a more peaceful and acceptable society.

That cannot be denied as most readers of the ‘Orange Standard’ will have knowledge of individual Protestants who have left Northern Ireland since 1968. Their forced eviction has been a key factor in the reduction in the Protestant population.

The 2001 Census figures must be a spur to both communities in Northern Ireland to work a lot harder to bring about community harmony, respect for one another’s traditions and heritage. Protestants, Unionists and Orangemen must work harder to create a peaceful, democratic and prosperous society in Northern Ireland. But it also needs a similar response from the minority community if that ideal is to become a reality.